PnL and Performance Metrics for Polymarket Traders

Learn how Orbscan computes realized PnL, win rate, Sharpe ratio, and max drawdown for Polymarket traders from raw on-chain activity data.

Orbscan computes a suite of performance metrics for every Polymarket trader, derived entirely from on-chain data recorded on the Polygon network. Because every trade, redemption, and payout is auditable on-chain, the calculations are transparent and tamper-proof — you can verify any figure against the raw blockchain events yourself. These metrics help you evaluate trader quality, compare strategies, and understand the risk profile behind any wallet’s track record.

PnL: Profit and Loss

PnL measures the net money a trader has made or lost across their Polymarket activity. Orbscan denominates all PnL figures in USD (USDC), since Polymarket settles entirely in USDC on Polygon.

Realized PnL

Realized PnL covers positions that have already been closed — either by selling shares before resolution, or by redeeming a payout after a market resolves. This is money definitively made or lost.

realized_pnl = sale_proceeds - cost_basis

For a Redeem, sale_proceeds equals quantity × $1.00 (since every winning share redeems at 100¢). For a Sell, sale_proceeds equals quantity × sale_price.

Unrealized PnL

Unrealized PnL covers positions that are still open. It reflects the gain or loss you would lock in if you sold your current shares at today’s market price.

unrealized_pnl = current_market_value - cost_basis

Total PnL

Total PnL combines both components:

total_pnl = realized_pnl + unrealized_pnl

Prices Are in Cents

All price values in Orbscan are expressed in cents (¢), ranging from 0 to 100 — not dollars. This is a critical detail when calculating trade values yourself.

• A price of 78 means 78¢ per share.
• Buying 100 shares at a price of 78 costs **$78 USDC** (100 ×$0.78).
• If that market resolves Yes, those 100 shares redeem for $100 USDC** — a profit of **$22.

The grossValue field reflects this calculation: grossValue = (price / 100) × quantity. A buy of 5 shares at 78¢ produces grossValue = 3.9 (i.e., $3.90).

grossValue vs transferNetAmount

These two fields both measure value in USDC, but they capture different things:

Field	Formula	What It Represents
grossValue	(price / 100) × quantity	The theoretical value of the shares traded, based on price and quantity alone.
transferNetAmount	Actual USDC moved ± fees	The real USDC that changed hands in the transaction, after the platform fee is applied. Positive = USDC sent out of the wallet (buy); negative = USDC received by the wallet (sell or redeem).

For a Buy of 5 shares at 78¢:

• grossValue = $3.90 — the theoretical share value at the quoted price (78/100 × 5)
• transferNetAmount = $5.00 — the net USDC that moved out of the wallet in this transaction

The difference between transferNetAmount and grossValue can reflect order-book spread, fees, or multi-fill aggregation within a single transaction. For a Redeem, transferNetAmount is negative (USDC is received by the wallet) and its absolute value equals quantity × 1.00.

Platform Fees

The fee field on every activity record is the platform fee deducted from the trade value, denominated in USDC. Fees apply to Buy and Sell actions; Redeems always have fee = 0.

{
  "action": "Buy",
  "price": 78.0,
  "quantity": 5.0,
  "fee": 0.02574,
  "grossValue": 3.9,
  "transferNetAmount": 5.0
}

Fees are deducted by the Polymarket protocol at the time of the trade. Orbscan surfaces the raw fee amount so you can accurately reconstruct cost basis and compare net vs. gross performance.

Performance Metrics Summary

The metrics below are computed by Orbscan from the raw on-chain trade data returned by the activity endpoint (GET /v1/trader/{address}/activity). They are displayed on trader profile pages at orbscan.com and are not returned as fields in the Open API response — the API returns individual trade records, and these analytics are derived from those records.

If you are building your own analytics, you can derive all of these metrics by fetching the full activity history for a wallet and applying the formulas described on this page.

Metric	Derived From	Definition	Time Window
Total PnL	Activity records (all)	realized_pnl + unrealized_pnl across all activity	All-time
30-Day PnL	Activity records (last 30 days)	Rolling PnL for trades opened or closed in the past 30 days	30 days
Win Rate	Resolved activity records	(resolved_wins / total_resolved_markets) × 100	All-time
Sharpe Ratio	PnL time series	mean_return / std_deviation_of_returns	All-time
Max Drawdown	PnL time series	Largest peak-to-trough decline in cumulative PnL	All-time

Win Rate

Win rate measures how consistently a trader picks the correct outcome across resolved markets:

win_rate = (resolved_wins / total_resolved_markets) × 100

A win is counted when the trader held shares of the outcome declared correct at resolution — regardless of position size or entry price. Win rate is a consistency signal, not a profit signal. A trader with a 90% win rate who always bets small on high-probability outcomes may generate less dollar PnL than a trader with a 60% win rate who sizes up on high-conviction calls. Always read win rate alongside total PnL and Sharpe ratio for a complete picture.

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio is a risk-adjusted return metric. It rewards consistent gains and penalizes large swings in performance, even if those swings are ultimately positive.

sharpe_ratio = mean_return / standard_deviation_of_returns

Use the following benchmarks when evaluating traders on Polymarket:

Sharpe Ratio	Interpretation
Below 0	Negative risk-adjusted performance
0 – 0.5	Marginal — returns don’t compensate for volatility
0.5 – 1.0	Good — solid, consistent performance
Above 1.0	Excellent — strong outperformance relative to risk taken

In prediction markets, a Sharpe ratio of 0.5 or above is generally considered good, given the inherently binary and high-variance nature of individual market outcomes.

Max Drawdown

Max drawdown captures the largest peak-to-trough decline in a trader’s cumulative PnL over their history. It answers the question: “What is the worst losing streak this trader has experienced?”

max_drawdown = max(peak_cumulative_pnl - subsequent_trough_pnl)

A low max drawdown relative to total PnL indicates that a trader grows their balance steadily without large reversals. A high max drawdown — even paired with strong total PnL — suggests the trader took on significant risk at some point and may do so again.

Orbscan updates all performance metrics in near real time as new on-chain events are indexed. PnL, win rate, and position values refresh continuously with each new Polygon block. Under normal network conditions, metrics are never stale by more than a few minutes.